The Signal Report Card.
What our actual published signals did next — measured on realized prices, every signal counted. Live since May 29, 2026.
Overall — every long signal we've published
8,485 signals · since May 29, 2026| Holding window | Win rate | Avg return | Median | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next 5 sessions | 50% | -0.89% | — | 8,485 |
| Next 10 sessions | 54% | +0.20% | — | 7,318 |
| Next 20 sessions | 58% | +0.98% | — | 4,066 |
Win rate is the share that closed higher than the signal-day entry. The 20-session column fills in as more signals age past that window.
How this is measured
Entry is the signal-day close of every long signal we publish. The return is the realized move over the following N trading sessions; a win is closing higher than entry. No survivorship — every signal we logged counts, winners and losers alike. This is a forward record (it started the day we began logging), not a backtest fit to history, so it is deliberately small at first and will lengthen as more signals age past each horizon.
By lane — over the next 5 sessions
The four long-only lanes track a breakout's life cycle, from coiling to retest.
| Lane / pattern | Win rate | Avg return | Median | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setting up | 53% | -0.44% | +0.15% | 5,029 |
| Breaking out | 47% | -1.22% | -0.19% | 1,477 |
| Broke out | 43% | -1.58% | -0.48% | 1,621 |
| Retesting breakout | 39% | -2.77% | -0.62% | 358 |
By lane — over the next 10 sessions
The four long-only lanes track a breakout's life cycle, from coiling to retest.
| Lane / pattern | Win rate | Avg return | Median | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setting up | 56% | +0.84% | +0.42% | 4,146 |
| Breaking out | 53% | -0.31% | +0.21% | 1,390 |
| Broke out | 48% | -0.91% | -0.08% | 1,475 |
| Retesting breakout | 52% | -0.72% | +0.10% | 307 |
By lane — over the next 20 sessions
The four long-only lanes track a breakout's life cycle, from coiling to retest.
| Lane / pattern | Win rate | Avg return | Median | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setting up | 59% | +1.82% | +1.00% | 2,087 |
| Breaking out | 56% | -0.12% | +0.62% | 936 |
| Broke out | 57% | +0.76% | +0.90% | 846 |
| Retesting breakout | 57% | -1.83% | +0.65% | 197 |
By pattern — over the next 5 sessions
The bullish chart patterns we put on the long board, ranked by how many we've published.
| Lane / pattern | Win rate | Avg return | Median | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascending Triangle | 45% | -3.60% | -0.10% | 2,393 |
| Downtrend | 56% | +0.29% | +0.32% | 1,373 |
| Bull Flag | 57% | +1.10% | +0.74% | 1,310 |
| Flat Base | 52% | +0.09% | +0.07% | 1,154 |
| Cup & Handle | 55% | -0.02% | +0.67% | 392 |
| Bull Pennant | 46% | -0.75% | -0.44% | 378 |
| Double Bottom | 27% | -2.28% | -3.09% | 273 |
| Inverse Head & Shoulders | 49% | +0.23% | -0.36% | 202 |
Fusion signals — over the next 5 sessions
The composite daily signals that fuse alt-data with the chart — newer than the lanes.
| Signal | Win rate | Avg return | Median | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smart-Money Confluence | 46% | -1.03% | -0.20% | 665 |
| Power Earnings Gap | 42% | -1.36% | -1.26% | 185 |
By market regime — setups over the next 5 sessions
How our setups performed by the market-timing read in effect when they fired.
| Market regime | Win rate | Avg return | Median | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market in correction | 48% | -1.71% | -0.09% | 3,138 |
The longer base rate
Beyond our own log, the underlying edge is measurable over a longer window: across 96,826 fresh 50-day-high breakouts in the last ~252 sessions of our price history, the average 5-session forward return was -1.21% and 51% closed higher.
Educational only — not financial advice. Chart and candlestick patterns frequently fail, and a forward return measured at a fixed horizon ignores the entry, stop, and target a trader would actually use. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Numbers refresh daily and will shift as the sample grows.
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