The Signal Report Card.
What our actual published signals did next — measured on realized prices, every signal counted. Live since May 29, 2026.
Overall — every long signal we've published
22,268 signals · since May 29, 2026| Holding window | Win rate | Avg return | Median | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next 5 sessions | 50% | -0.59% | — | 22,268 |
| Next 10 sessions | 53% | -0.12% | — | 20,015 |
| Next 20 sessions | 55% | -0.42% | — | 15,685 |
Win rate is the share that closed higher than the signal-day entry. The 20-session column fills in as more signals age past that window.
How this is measured
Entry is the signal-day close of every long signal we publish. The return is the realized move over the following N trading sessions; a win is closing higher than entry. No survivorship — every signal we logged counts, winners and losers alike. This is a forward record (it started the day we began logging), not a backtest fit to history, so it is deliberately small at first and will lengthen as more signals age past each horizon.
By lane — over the next 5 sessions
The four long-only lanes track a breakout's life cycle, from coiling to retest.
| Lane / pattern | Win rate | Avg return | Median | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setting up | 50% | -0.30% | +0.04% | 15,373 |
| Breaking out | 49% | -0.61% | -0.05% | 2,789 |
| Broke out | 49% | -1.15% | -0.04% | 3,202 |
| Retesting breakout | 46% | -3.42% | -0.10% | 904 |
By lane — over the next 10 sessions
The four long-only lanes track a breakout's life cycle, from coiling to retest.
| Lane / pattern | Win rate | Avg return | Median | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setting up | 53% | +0.25% | +0.23% | 13,436 |
| Breaking out | 54% | -0.15% | +0.21% | 2,639 |
| Broke out | 49% | -1.01% | +0.00% | 3,097 |
| Retesting breakout | 51% | -2.58% | +0.08% | 843 |
By lane — over the next 20 sessions
The four long-only lanes track a breakout's life cycle, from coiling to retest.
| Lane / pattern | Win rate | Avg return | Median | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setting up | 58% | +0.23% | +0.86% | 10,174 |
| Breaking out | 51% | -1.85% | +0.13% | 2,289 |
| Broke out | 50% | -0.93% | +0.04% | 2,564 |
| Retesting breakout | 52% | -3.46% | +0.16% | 658 |
By pattern — over the next 5 sessions
The bullish chart patterns we put on the long board, ranked by how many we've published.
| Lane / pattern | Win rate | Avg return | Median | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascending Triangle | 48% | -2.78% | +0.00% | 6,574 |
| Bull Flag | 51% | +0.45% | +0.07% | 4,391 |
| Flat Base | 51% | +0.34% | +0.08% | 4,085 |
| Downtrend | 56% | +0.37% | +0.34% | 2,826 |
| Bull Pennant | 45% | -0.33% | -0.35% | 1,143 |
| Cup & Handle | 51% | -0.10% | +0.04% | 1,091 |
| Inverse Head & Shoulders | 46% | -0.73% | -0.56% | 303 |
| Double Bottom | 27% | -2.28% | -3.09% | 273 |
Fusion signals — over the next 5 sessions
The composite daily signals that fuse alt-data with the chart — newer than the lanes.
| Signal | Win rate | Avg return | Median | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smart-Money Confluence | 47% | +8.47% | -0.29% | 4,533 |
| Power Earnings Gap | 50% | +0.57% | +0.00% | 9,387 |
By market regime — setups over the next 5 sessions
How our setups performed by the market-timing read in effect when they fired.
| Market regime | Win rate | Avg return | Median | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Confirmed uptrend | 65% | -0.06% | +0.71% | 2,085 |
| Uptrend under pressure | 51% | -0.76% | +0.04% | 1,079 |
| Market in correction | 47% | -0.71% | -0.13% | 13,543 |
The longer base rate
Beyond our own log, the underlying edge is measurable over a longer window: across 90,443 fresh 50-day-high breakouts in the last ~252 sessions of our price history, the average 5-session forward return was -1.42% and 50% closed higher.
Educational only — not financial advice. Chart and candlestick patterns frequently fail, and a forward return measured at a fixed horizon ignores the entry, stop, and target a trader would actually use. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Numbers refresh daily and will shift as the sample grows.
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